For the FNM, an uphill climb

If you had not noticed it before, the stage is being set for an election much earlier than May 2022 as the major political parties yesterday started rolling out candidates.

We doubt it was purely coincidental that the governing Free National Movement (FNM) announced 17 candidates; six newcomers and 11 incumbents, hours ahead of the Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) candidates rollout.

Noticeably, but not surprisingly, Brensil Rolle, the current Garden Hills MP, and Brent Symonette, the St. Anne’s MP, are not on the list.

The FNM announced former Democratic National Alliance (DNA) candidate Stephen Greenslade for Garden Hills and Adrian White for St. Anne’s.

Trade unionist, Jennifer Isaacs-Dotson, a current senator, was ratified for Exumas and Ragged Island, a seat currently held by PLP Deputy Leader Chester Cooper.

It is probably the case that the FNM knew of the PLP’s event last night to announce its candidates and wanted to share the spotlight.

The PLP, which suffered a crushing defeat at the polls in 2017, no doubt understands that voters want to see strong evidence of a new PLP.

One of the most important ways to do that is to present a slate absent of those PLPs who brought shame and scandal to the party.

The PLP needs to ensure it is achieving in its candidates picks an acceptable balance of new candidates and those with experience.

The party only won four seats in the last election and gained a member — Vaughn Miller in Golden Isles — when he left the FNM in late 2019 and eventually joined the PLP.

The party announced 18 candidates last night.

Miller’s entrance into the PLP meant that Michael Halkitis — the former minister of state for finance who previously represented the area and had been eyeing another nomination there — had to go and find another constituency.

Halkitis is now the candidate for St. Barnabas, a seat currently held by the FNM’s Shanendon Cartwright.

Only one of the five current PLP MPs, Fred Mitchell, (the PLP’s chairman, and former Cabinet minister and Fox Hill MP) has been ratified thus far.

We understand that the jury is still out on Central and South Andros MP Picewell Forbes, who might be running into some trouble in securing another nomination.

Wayne Munroe, QC, who ran unsuccessfully in Freetown against Dionisio D’Aguilar in 2017, has been nominated for the area again. His offensive gesture during a PLP rally ahead of the last election was not something that caused him to miss getting the party’s nod once again.

Alfred Sears, the former Fort Charlotte MP and former attorney general in the first Christie administration, who mounted a courageous challenge against Perry Christie for party leader in 2017, has been ratified for Fort Charlotte.

Keith Bell, the former minister of state for national security, has been ratified for Carmichael.

Other than those individuals, the PLP’s slate thus far is all new faces — Leslia Miller-Brice, the daughter of the former controversial Tall Pines MP Leslie Miller, has been ratified for Sea Breeze.

Miller wants the Tall Pines nomination once again, but we understand that former Pineridge MP Dr. Michael Darville, who was minister for Grand Bahama in Christie’s last Cabinet, is set to get that nomination.

Miller has vowed to run with or without the party’s blessing.

Miller-Brice and current PLP Senator Jobeth Coleby-Davis are the only two women ratified by the PLP thus far.

From this point on, we imagine it will be a race between the two major parties to complete their slates of candidates.

Tough climb

It has been a full year since Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis declared that the victory train had left the gate, but politics had initially taken a back seat as the pandemic raged.

We noted last week that in recent weeks, Minnis has increasingly been sending a signal that he will call an early election. 

Though he pledged (more than once) on the campaign trail to cause there to be a set election date, he made no moves to ensure that happens; and so, we are left to wonder and to watch the signs.

Minnis has been hopscotching across the archipelago. As prime minister, he is able to use the resources of the state to carry out prime ministerial functions, but anyone who thinks this is not also about politics and reelection would be fooling themselves.

As the governing FNM moves into election mode, there is very little, if any, good news it can convey to voters.

On Sunday, the Ministry of Finance released a dismal snapshot of fiscal performance in the first six months of the budget year.

With a budget deficit of $736.1 million, borrowing for that period exceeding $2 billion and the national debt exceeding $9 billion, we are in a bad way with no hopeful signs in our immediate future.

The Central Bank governor on Monday reported that The Bahamas’ economic strengthening and tourism recovery will not begin a meaningful uptick until 2022.

In today’s Guardian Business, President of CFAL Anthony Ferguson says the government has no choice but to implement “major tax increases” during the next budget cycle.

With government’s finances in a critical state, the economy in crisis, and with the FNM’s overall record of low achievement, it will be a tough sell to convince voters the party deserves another shot at governance.

The need is so great; there is so much suffering. Even middle income Bahamians who once led comfortable lives are struggling. 

We highlight the plight of some families in another piece in today’s section. These stories are real. People face these realities daily.

The FNM needs a winning strategy; that will be hard to find.

A fresh slate of candidates makes the PLP a more palatable option. The FNM should not think that continuing to raise corruption claims and PLP scandals will derail the PLP’s chances.

A major reason for the party’s loss the last lap was the presence of Perry Christie as leader, an independently produced PLP post-election report found. Christie has been gone for nearly four years.

Yes, the corruption perception was also listed as a major reason for the loss, but with problematic and scandal-plagued PLPs off the ticket, the PLP increases its chances of victory.

No incumbent administration has won reelection since 1997. Voters have punished those in office for failing to deliver, and for abusing trust.

While the coming weeks will determine whether momentum builds for the PLP, many have already decided they will not reelect the current crew in office.

It is likely that with a pandemic still going on and with funding for political parties likely to be subdued, we will see a different kind of election season. The times of mass rallies are but memories.

On the ground campaigning will be more valuable than ever.

These are the times in which we live. 

We suspect the PLP will continue to roll out fresh faces as it seeks to convince voters that it has heard loud and clear the message sent just under four years ago.

Though the competition remains wide open, and there are never any guarantees as elections go, the FNM appears to be in big trouble.

Just how big would likely come more into focus in the weeks and months ahead.

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