The current widespread disaffection toward the Minnis administration is feeling eerily similar to the angst that grew toward the Christie administration in its final months in office, which led to an historic and decisive rejection of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) at the polls.
Though they portray confidence in their chances of re-election, as politicians often do, Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis and other FNM MPs must know that getting back in will be a long shot.
This, despite a general lack of enthusiasm among the population for Philip Brave Davis as prime minister of The Bahamas and a so-far largely unexciting slate of PLP candidates.
Many Bahamians are deeply frustrated by the leadership options before them. They are tired of having to choose between the lesser of two political evils. They are thirsty for inspirational and transformational leadership, not just more of the same.
But it is clear the next general election will not be the one in which dynamic leaders lead the field.
Saddled by the twin crises of Hurricane Dorian and COVID-19, the Minnis-led government, which was slow out the starting gate, has been unable to truly take off. Now, time is running out to do big things.
Even if Minnis — who failed to meet his pledge of a set election date — decides to finish off the full five years of the term, it is doubtful that the Free National Movement (FNM) would have much of a record to present to the Bahamian people in any convincing manner.
Already hugely unpopular, the FNM must be cautious in how it handles the selection and rollout of candidates. This is important for the party’s messaging as it attempts to pull off a monumental feat — that of re-election under the most dire of economic and fiscal circumstances.
Last week, the governing party announced 17 candidates — 11 incumbents and six newcomers.
The rollout of candidates, among other signs, suggests that there will be an election long before May 2022, the end of the five-year term.
Ahead of the May 2012 general election, the FNM ratified candidates in January 2012. In the lead up to the May 2017 election, it ratified candidates in the Fall of 2016 and in early 2017, with the final candidate ratified as late as March.
We do not think it is getting such an early start with the ratification of candidates this time around just for the sake of getting an early start.
What plays out in national politics as the campaign season intensifies is merely a manifestation of the internal politics at play within political organizations.
That internal politics is often fraught with friction and jockeying for nominations. Along the way, many who recognize that the clearest path to Parliament is through party affiliation, are often left disappointed.
To a very large degree, their success in getting on the party’s ticket depends on their favorability with the leader, though constituency associations could create problems and infighting if their strongly desired selection is altogether overlooked.
One current MP, whose name had been called as someone who will not be renominated, stressed to us this week that he has the full backing of his association so any effort to cut him out of a nomination would create issues within the party.
Axed
Certain revelations on candidates picks have in recent days been the cause of intrigue.
Notably, the indelicate handling of the dumping of East Grand Bahama MP Peter Turnquest has portrayed the FNM as undemocratic and the prime minister as cold-hearted in the treatment of his deputy.
In the absence of any final decision being made by the party’s Central Council, Minnis informed Turnquest that he will not be renominated for East Grand Bahama.
Turnquest had been campaigning in the area and he fully expected to be the party’s standard bearer in the next general election, but Minnis has other ideas.
It is no secret that the two have had a frosty relationship while Turnquest served in Cabinet.
A civil suit filed in court in November in which Turnquest is accused of conspiring to defraud two companies of $28 million seemed like the perfect excuse to drop him from the party’s ticket.
The revelation that he is being cut out of a nomination did not play well for the FNM, largely because of the manner in which the matter was handled, and because he is still viewed favorably in some circles, despite the legal issue, which forced his resignation from Cabinet in November and is now derailing his political career.
Though he has decided not to speak publicly to the issue given that the council has not yet made a final determination, we imagine Turnquest feels let down by Minnis and the party.
But that is the tough nature of politics. Loyalties do not guarantee political longevity and political alliances are often broken as quickly as they are formed.
In opposition, Turnquest played his political cards right and ended up on the winning team, which secured 35 of the 39 seats in the House of Assembly in 2017.
Seven other members of the FNM’s caucus in 2016 drew their daggers in an attempt to deal lethal political wounds to Minnis. While they unseated him as leader of the official opposition, it was an achievement of little lasting impact and signaled a swift end to the political lives of the players who inflicted the wounds.
At the same time, the loyalty of those like Turnquest who had stood with Minnis paid off, but the sweet taste of victory swiftly faded as the tremendous challenges and responsibilities of governance weighed heavily on the new administration.
As finance minister, Turnquest has done a lot of the heavy lifting. In 2018, he took the blows as the government in a highly unpopular move that still has tremendous ramifications, raised value-added tax from 7.5 to 12 percent.
In the time that followed, particularly for most of 2020, he had to juggle the awesome demands created by shockingly elevated unemployment, stunningly low economic activity and soberingly high deficit and debt levels.
Now Turnquest, who resigned from the Cabinet days after the civil suit was filed, and who remains deputy leader of the party, is being forced into political retirement.
The whole affair has raised questions about who else will be denied nominations by the FNM — or by Minnis jumping the gun before the council’s decisions are made.
In response to all the chatter created by Turnquest’s revelation to colleagues that Minnis has communicated to him that he is out, the FNM leader released a statement on Sunday night, claiming ratification announcements are made “based on careful consultation and the need for ongoing renewal of the FNM”.
Minnis noted that some of the people who ran in 2017 will not run in the next general election. He indicated that more incumbents will be cut, stating, “Out of respect and courtesy, our party will first privately inform those incumbents who will not be nominated again before we make public announcements.”
What of Sands?
On the weekend, rumors swirled that Elizabeth MP Dr. Duane Sands, who resigned last May as minister of health, is also being denied a nomination.
Sands said however, no one had communicated any such thing to him and he was on Saturday busy walking his constituency and meeting with residents.
Prominent FNM sources have told us that Minnis wants Sands out, but could face some internal pushback as Sands is still widely regarded by many in the electorate as competent and hard working, and is well liked.
Sands, who in opposition had teamed up with Loretta Butler-Turner, the former FNM deputy leader, in a bid to unseat Minnis as party leader, threw his support behind Minnis before the last election and accepted a nomination for Elizabeth, a seat he unsuccessfully contested two times prior.
As minister, Sands was excoriated by a magistrate for certain actions connected to the corruption trial of former PLP Senator Frank Smith.
He resigned as minister of health early in the pandemic after accepting responsibility for the violation of COVID travel protocols the prime minister had put in place.
Since then, he has been highly critical of the Minnis administration, railing against former colleagues over the handling of the death count in the wake of Hurricane Dorian.
More recently, he has refused to support the government’s extension of the state of emergency, insisting that the time has long passed to end it.
The vociferous backbencher, who has never been known to have a particularly warm relationship with the prime minister, still expects to run on the party’s ticket.
Some senior FNMs have long told us that Sands will not get a nomination, but such a move would likely not play well for Minnis and for the FNM.
Others
Other MPs have already bowed out on their own. Brensil Rolle in Garden Hills insists no one asked him to step aside, and Brent Symonette in St. Anne’s said it’s time for the area to have a new face.
Central and South Abaco MP James Albury announced this week that he is not seeking a nomination as he is focused on reconnecting with family members and starting a family of his own.
Bowing out will undoubtedly bring him some relief from the demands of politics.
Abaco communities have faced increased challenges due to Hurricane Dorian. Many residents remain tremendously frustrated as they seek resources to rebuild.
Darren Henfield, the North Abaco, MP, was among the candidates the FNM announced last week.
The party has not yet ratified any candidates for Grand Bahama, though reports have circulated that Marco City MP Michael Pintard is set to get axed.
Pintard told us, however, that’s just political mischief.
Pineridge MP Frederick McAlpine, who has remained in the party but whose only role in Parliament has been to berate and vote against the Minnis administration’s major measures, is undoubtedly facing the last months of his time in the Parliament as an FNM.
There is no one we know of who will be shocked when the announcement is finally made that he is being denied a nomination.
The FNM, which swept all five Grand Bahama seats in 2017, faces difficult prospects of winning those seats once again. Grand Bahama had been experiencing a protracted period of slow economic activity long before COVID-19 struck.
This week, the opposition leader, who was on the northern island, vowed that it is poised for better days.
In a statement on Sunday, Minnis said his party is well advanced in the process of evaluating potential candidates for remaining constituencies.
With the prime minister already foreshadowing that more incumbents won’t be nominated, many are waiting to see how the final slate shapes up as the major parties get ready to do battle.
The post Uncertain fates appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.
source https://thenassauguardian.com/uncertain-fates/
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