Rolle: winter tourist numbers unlikely to return until 2023

It is not expected that the typically robust winter season will be back to pre-pandemic numbers even next year, Governor of The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBOB) John Rolle said yesterday, explaining that it will not likely be until 2023 that The Bahamas will experience visitor numbers comparable to 2019.

Given this prediction, Rolle, who made his remarks during an appearance on the Guardian Radio show “The Hit Back With Nahaja Black”, added that the level of unemployment in The Bahamas will likely stay elevated in the near term.

He said meaningfully reduced unemployment will be “a product of getting things up to a comfortable standard in the hotel sector, getting the cruise visitors back and the individuals who made their livelihoods interacting with cruises” all back to a reasonable level.

While Rolle said the data points to some level of growth in 2022 and while there could be some months next year that post visitor numbers comparable to 2019, numbers, there is not likely to be a year where cumulative months’ numbers arrive at a total similar to 2019.

“If you look at the year in totality and the impact of recovery, you’re able to say that there is recovery more comfortably in 2023,” Rolle said.

“If we are recovered sufficiently next year, some months could be seeing business that equates to highs before the pandemic.”

Rolle said on Monday that global vaccinations will not boost traveler confidence until the second half of 2021. He added that The Bahamas’ economic strengthening and tourism recovery would not begin a meaningful uptick until 2022. Rolle, who made the remarks during the CBOB’s quarterly update, said projections were pushed back given that there was no material restart to tourism in The Bahamas into the end of 2020 and no outlook for a great improvement in the first half of 2021.

“The virtual standstill of international travel in 2020 underscores the severe negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Bahamian economy,” Rolle said on Monday.

“These effects will also weigh heavily on the economy in 2021, because the global vaccination drive is not expected to meaningfully boost travel confidence until the second half of the year.

“For The Bahamas, this limits the degree of economic strengthening that would be observed in 2021. The most significant upside potential for tourism recovery remains getting the virus under control in North America.”

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source https://thenassauguardian.com/rolle-winter-tourist-numbers-unlikely-to-return-until-2023/