Tourism study looks at impact of future storms and sea level rise

Seventy-four percent of tourism-based jobs will be at risk due to a strong Category 5 hurricane by the year 2100, according to a recent study, which also noted the storm’s impact on beaches will likely lead to a decrease in visitor expenditure by nearly $1 billion. 

Tourism accounts for 50 percent of The Bahamas’ gross domestic product and 65 percent of its employment, according to Tourism Minister Dionisio D’Aguilar.

“Sea level rise will directly affect only a small percentage (5.14 percent) of the total employment in the travel and tourism sector,” the study noted.

“However, the number of employees will be significantly impacted due to storm surge with more than 74 percent of the total employment at risk due to a strong Cat 5 storm by 2100. These values are conservative estimates, as they do not account for future employment growth in the tourism sector.”

It continued, “The highest loss of tourism expenditure will result from the loss of beaches. The beaches of New Providence and Paradise Island are listed by 86 percent of tourists as the main reason why they come to the islands.

“Considering a total loss of beaches by 2100, this will result in a 56.17 percent decline of the total visitors in The Bahamas and a decrease in visitor expenditure by USD $981.75 million (36.8 percent of total visitor expenditure).”

The study, which was published in Environmental Development in August 2020, examines direct and indirect climate-induced impacts on The Bahamas by identifying flood risk zones on New Providence and Paradise Island and quantifying major social-economic and environmental losses associated with tourism. 

It noted that The Bahamas was chosen as a case study because it faces similar vulnerabilities to climate change as other small island developing states; it is a heavily tourism reliant economy that provides an avenue for understanding the spillover effects of climate change at the country level; and the recent encounters of high-intensity hurricane events — like Hurricane Dorian which ravaged Abaco and Grand Bahama in 2019 — in the country.

The study estimated that “many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a one meter rise in sea level”.

“While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms, the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34 percent, 69 percent, and 83 percent of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively,” it noted.

“In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28 percent of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0 to 50 meters and 60 percent of the tourism infrastructure within 0 to 100 meters of the coastline.”

Twenty-seven (or 96 percent) of beachfront tourism properties on the two islands are within 100 meters of the coast, according to the study.  

It said, of that figure, 12 are within less than 50 meters of the coastline.

The study also noted that more economy properties are likely to be impacted by the rise in sea level.

“Only three percent of luxury properties are at risk of potential SLR induced inundation,” it noted.

“For these properties, the occupancy related losses increase from 5.9 percent to 29.2 percent when the storm category changes from Cat 1 to Cat 3. Comparatively, 14.4 percent and 19.8 percent of the budget and economic properties are at risk from the SLR and these risks increase to 31 percent to 34.9 percent for Cat 1 and Cat 3 storm categories respectively.

“In the event of a strong storm, most properties will face a similar level of risks: 71.4 percent for budget, 75.4 percent for the economy and 74.3 percent for luxury properties,” it noted.

“The decrease in revenues was estimated as follows: seven percent for SLR, 5.5 percent for a weak storm (Cat 1), 30 percent for a moderate storm (Cat 3), and 74 percent for a strong storm (Cat 5) by 2100. Amongst other business interruptions due to flooding and inundation, the potential losses in occupancy will decrease revenues significantly.”

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