Healthcare professionals say the country is now in its third wave of COVID-19.
It is proclamation the minister of health and competent authority appear reluctant to make.
Having taken account of the trends, we believe the assessment of the health professionals – not only because they are most qualified to make such a determination – but they are also who Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis and Health Minister Renward Wells insist are the voices that guide government’s pandemic response.
If we have been encouraged all along to trust the insight of healthcare professionals who know first-hand the trends and impact of case surges, there is no justifiable reason to distrust them now – unless one considers politics to be a justifiable reason to downplay the reality that if not stemmed now, the country’s sustained increase in cases could put it back along the path of countries returning to lockdowns to curb their third wave.
It is indisputable that COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns have wrought a staggering toll on the domestic economy, plunging many workers and business owners into financial insecurity.
Falloffs in global tourism have also dealt a historic blow to government revenue inflows, prompting the Minnis administration to engage in unprecedented levels of borrowing to fill a ballooning recurrent deficit.
Conversely, there is the incalculable cost of lives lost to COVID-19, together with the threat to healthcare workers and the delivery of healthcare nationwide whether for those with or without the virus, should the country’s healthcare system become overburdened.
Moreover, business interruptions due to COVID-19 exposures that would invariably increase during a new wave, add a vexing level of instability to both private and public sector operations.
In New Providence, the impact of surging cases on public health is already being felt.
An increase in COVID-19 admissions at Princess Margaret Hospital (PMH) has prompted it to make efforts to reduce its number of patients by suspending elective admissions and surgeries, with the need to also reduce patient numbers at the island’s clinics.
Earlier this month, Hospital Administrator Mary Walker confirmed reports during a Ministry of Health press conference of delays in response times by paramedics who are forced to wait for their gurneys to be freed up before responding to calls.
Walker explained that bed shortages and the wait time involved in receiving RT-PCR test results for those requiring admittance, have contributed to such delays.
She also pointed to longstanding shortages of nurses and other pre-allied health workers that further strain the delivery of health care once COVID-19 cases surge.
Targeted restrictions
Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Program in the Ministry of Health Dr. Nikkiah Forbes spoke to Perspective on Sunday in response to our question of whether targeted restrictions ought to be reintroduced to stem the tide of the country’s surge.
Forbes, who stressed that “there is no doubt we are in a third wave”, noted that targeted restrictions ought to be predicated on data that indicates where the problem areas exist, be it travel, workplace clusters or daytime gatherings.
She noted that public health measures, vaccination, and testing, contact tracing and isolation are effective prevention strategies, but stressed the caveat that public health measures can only work if everyone is compliant.
Forbes explained, “So, if most people are doing it, but there is an event, for example a large party or large gathering, and one or a few people have COVID and everybody gets exposed, they are going to take that with them where they go.
“It requires basically a population with good compliance.”
Though Forbes did not single out a particular kind of gathering, recent holiday parties as well as political gatherings and activities which began well before the Easter holiday and continued last week despite the case numbers on several islands, are well known.
As for the reintroduction of targeted restrictions, Forbes stated, “You could do something early for a shorter period of time, or if you wait, what will happen is you’re going to get something called exponential spread, meaning one person infects three more people, and each one of them infects three more people.
“You will end up with a large wave, and you will have no choice but to implement measures. It is difficult to put in place measures, but it could be very strategic to do targeted measures. You might not go to a 24-hour curfew, but you might reduce opportunities for people to gather.
“When you consider putting in place certain measures, what you are doing is being very strategic in trying to get your cases under control.”
Forbes asserted that early strategic intervention is best, rather than waiting until lives are lost and people are suffering.
But when asked if we are still in that “early” stage for response, the infectious disease specialist answered assuredly, “no”.
“We were [in the early stage] at the beginning of the wave a few weeks ago when we noted that there was an uptick in cases. Since then, there has been a sustained increase in the number of cases, which is a wave.
“We are seeing that exponential increase and we are in a third wave, and it can get worse.”
Travel-related cases
At the ministry’s press conference, it was disclosed that some new COVID-19 cases in Exuma were travel-related, wherein a family who returned from the United States with a negative RT-PCR test result tested antigen-positive on the fifth day; a result confirmed via follow-up PCR.
They were all asymptomatic.
New Providence has recorded a significant number of cases with a recent history of travel abroad, and officials said most of Eleuthera’s new cases were either imported or import-related.
The threat of imported COVID-19 cases is pronounced given the presence of deadly and highly transmissible variants in the United States, the country’s largest travel and tourism market.
Twenty-three US states have confirmed the presence of either the UK, Brazilian or South African variant, with Florida confirming the presence of all three.
An April 16 report by the Orlando Sentinel indicated that variant cases in Florida “exploded” following spring break, rising “six-fold” since March.
The results of additional testing to confirm the presence of variants of concern in The Bahamas are still pending.
Research indicates that the AstraZeneca vaccine provides as little as 10 percent protection against serious illness and death from the South African variant.
One study showed the vaccine offers 75 percent effectiveness against the UK variant, with studies ongoing into its effectiveness against the Brazilian variant.
As for the Nigerian variant (B1.525), the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine is currently unknown.
Given the country’s growing number of travel-related cases, and the risks that can be associated with COVID-19-positive visitors and returning residents unknowingly exposing others to the virus while awaiting a fifth-day antigen test, it remains to be seen whether a review of existing protocols for incoming travelers will be undertaken.
The post We must stop the third wave appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.
source https://thenassauguardian.com/we-must-stop-the-third-wave/
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