The date of the next general election is in the mind of the prime minister, and his mind alone.
Justifiable speculation that the prime minister is contemplating an early election is rife, made more credible by government’s unwillingness to acknowledge that the trend of COVID-19 cases it has taken credit for lowering, has now soared in what is already shaping up as a deadly third wave.
Though there is suspicion about a plan for a snap election, not much has been discussed publicly about what a snap election in the middle of a surge could mean for the people’s vote.
Voter turnout in The Bahamas continues to be among the highest in the region, which on Election Day translates into long lines, dipping thumbs in ink utilized by thousands of others, and poll workers having constant, prolonged contact with voters and with one another.
If an election is called while COVID-19 cases are continuing to surge, how will all eligible Bahamian voters be able to safely cast their ballot while maintaining social distancing and other public health guidelines?
Just a casual consideration of the possibility would yield a recognition that strict adherence to safety protocols could greatly increase the time it would take for voters to cast their ballots.
What would this mean for the opening and closing hours of the polls, and for extra staffing required to reduce hours of exposure for poll workers?
And would the thought of standing on long lines that would invariably stretch a far distance from the polling station if social distancing is enforced, wind up being a deterrent to voters, prompting many who would have otherwise cast their ballot, to stay home?
This concern is especially noteworthy for the elderly and those with disabilities.
And what of those who are COVID-19-positive and either under isolation or quarantine? How will their right to vote be impacted?
If a state of emergency would no longer be in effect ahead of Election Day, could this lead to risky overcrowding at the polls?
And if voters choose to stay home due to fears of COVID-19 exposure, do governing party strategists consider this to be a potential advantage for them?
We make no accusation of insidiousness, but if in fact the prime minister is contemplating a snap election sooner rather than later, the question must be asked of how he believes the same might impact voter turnout in a surge.
Is not unreasonable to query whether an election during a surge has a desired outcome of lower voter turnout, even if this would be an arguably bad political strategy to pursue since many disaffected and uninspired voters are in fact supporters of the governing party.
Consider Jamaica
When Jamaica’s prime minister called an election last year, he did so as cases on the island were in a surge.
Of the elections that the Jamaica Gleaner said were called six months before they were constitutionally due, the newspaper reported, “… On June 1 when Jamaica started opening up its borders, 588 cases were confirmed, with nine deaths. On August 11 when the polls were announced, the new total was 883.”
Amidst criticism, Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared at the time that he had “no regrets” about calling an election during his country’s surge in cases, maintaining that his government was managing the outbreak well.
Medical professionals in Jamaica warned that the country could see a large spike in cases due to campaign activities and crowds on poll day.
The country’s Public Defender Arlene Harrison Henry was quoted by the Gleaner last August as saying, “It is observed that since the announcement of the date of election, there have been a number of motorcades, rallies, and general jollification across the island and with reckless abandon of all COVID-19 protocols in both political camps, thereby facilitating the continued exponential increase in the rate of infection.
“This is undeniably to the detriment to the health of all of us.”
Jamaica carved out a one-hour time period for COVID-19-positive citizens to vote on Election Day, which the Gleaner said triggered fears that “long lines and big crowds could delay the voting process for the 403,429 electors aged 60 and older on the current list”.
Holness was ultimately forced to suspend traditional campaigning ahead of the September 3 poll, due to the country’s alarming rise in cases.
He went on to capture a second term in an election where the voter turnout of 37 percent was the country’s lowest since 1983, and was more than 11 percentage points lower than the turnout in the previous election.
Most regrettably, due to factors not limited to any unconfirmed links to election activities, Jamaica did experience a runaway surge – bolstered by variant transmission – that at some points led to the island recording over 800 cases in a single day this year.
As of Saturday, the island recorded a total of 760 COVID-19 deaths.
We wonder whether the prime minister and those in his inner circle have looked at the Jamaica dynamic, and have had ideas about whether they could enjoy the same victory at the polls in the event large numbers of voters shy away due to COVID-19 fears.
If a snap election is being contemplated before the 2021/2022 fiscal budget must be tabled as some speculate, or if held at any point during an ongoing surge this year, Bahamians would be put in the untenable position of choosing between protecting themselves from COVID-19 exposure among crowds of voters, and exercising their constitutional right to choose who ought to govern them.
An election budget
The 2021/2022 fiscal budget is to be laid on the last Wednesday of May, and preparation for its tabling would be in the advanced stages.
Observers point out that a mixture of tax hikes, unpopular cutbacks and massive borrowing would be expected in the budget given the country’s financial position – which would be a budget that invariably spells “vote them out.”
If Parliament is not dissolved before the budget is presented, those with an eye trained on fiscal responsibility would be looking for a comprehensive plan that addresses the country’s financial crisis heightened by the pandemic, as opposed to a fat and slush-filled budget designed to please voters at the expense of fiscal viability.
It can be argued that the Minnis administration has not been given to reckless spending during this term.
But it should also be remembered that until recently, the purse strings were being managed by former Finance Minister Peter Turnquest, who was well known for his frugality with public funds.
In as much as the prime minister has claimed that he would rather lose an election than lose a country, seldom has a political leader been found in history who embraced a potential loss he or she believed could be averted, by means including an unsustainable pre-election run on public funds to hold onto power.
It remains to be seen which way the prime minister will go, but what cannot be campaigned away is that the country’s debt to gross domestic product ratio – an indicator of its ability to repay it debts – will be at a record projected 83 percent at the end of the current fiscal year.
Government debt at the end of June is projected to stand at approximately $9.5 billion, and the projected fiscal deficit for the upcoming 2021/2022 fiscal year is $954.6 million dollars.
With that large of a projected deficit which will require significant borrowing over and above the significant sums already borrowed in the current fiscal year, the country is in no position to post an election budget brimming with gifts the Bahamian people cannot afford to give, and that would ultimately come back to haunt taxpayers who are stretched beyond their limit in an economy that is projected to realize only marginal growth this year.
Many Bahamians have already made up their minds on who they will vote for, or whether they will vote at all.
Government still has a year left in its mandate to govern, and is under no statutory pressure to go to the polls before that time.
As for whatever the prime minister is contemplating, what the country does not need is reckless abandon in an effort to make winners out of the sitting government, that would ultimately make losers of the Bahamian people.
We view reckless abandon as either the holding of an election during a deadly surge, or tabling an election budget that throws fiscal caution to the wind.
The post A snap in a surge appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.
source https://thenassauguardian.com/a-snap-in-a-surge/
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