Minister expects 80% tourism rebound by 2022

The Bahamas will likely see the rebound of 80 percent of its tourism industry in 2022, according to Tourism Minister Dionisio D’Aguilar, who expressed concern about whether businesses on Bay Street will be able to survive the COVID-19 pandemic

The tourism industry and eventually, the country, came to a standstill at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March.

The Bahamas, which had reported more than seven million visitors in 2019, has seen sparse visitor arrivals this year.

“You can’t expect it’s going to be completely elastic where you bounce right back to 2019,” D’Aguilar said.

“I’m convinced that it will be at least a number of years before that happens. I go back to a business that I know well. When the financial disaster of 2007/8 hit…it took until 2014 for the sales to be the same as 2007.

“It took seven years for it to bounce back from that. I’m saying that this will be quite the same but there is no doubt that in your core market — and, in fact, many markets of the world — there has been significant dislocation because of this. I mean British Airways just laid off 12,000 people.

“So, is it going to come back that quick? I don’t know. And those people have had to borrow money and get themselves into a situation where they have had to live with this. It will be some time before you get back to the peak of 2019.”

He predicted a full rebound would take more than three years.

“I think very quickly 80 percent of it will come back but to do the last 20 percent, it will probably take a while,” D’Aguilar said.

When asked if he believes the 80 percent rebound will happen next year, D’Aguilar replied, “No, not next year, probably 2022.”

He described the ongoing pandemic as “a real challenge” and a “nightmare”.

Cruise lines are likely delayed until the end of the first quarter of next year.

As a result, according to D’Aguilar, there will be no cruise passenger buffer for one of the biggest travel holidays for Americans.

Despite this, he maintained that The Bahamas is “wonderfully positioned” for the cruise market because of its location.

“We’ll have a beautiful new cruise port in the next two years,” he said.

“We’ll be in a great position to bounce back in the cruise market very quickly. If you stratify the market, I think the cruise market, as it comes back – and they tell you their passengers and their customers are very loyal and people are just waiting for the green light for them to start cruising again – we obviously will be the main beneficiary of that.

“But, the problem is, can Bay Street hold on until then? That’s the concern.”

D’Aguilar added, “That will be a whole year. It’s very, very difficult for businesses that are in rent scenarios, whether they can hold on unless they just shut down and hunker down and holding their money and telling their landlord he got to wait, which is what some may be doing.”

November 1 marked The Bahamas’ second attempt at reopening its tourism sector during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first reopening, which took place on July 1, was followed by a spike in COVID cases on Grand Bahama and New Providence — the two most populous islands in The Bahamas. The virus also spread across The Bahamas.

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source https://thenassauguardian.com/minister-expects-80-tourism-rebound-by-2022/