Uncertainty and risk

Without the relative certainty of timelines, life can become a cascade of trepidation and risk.

Timelines are what we use to plan our lives and affairs, make sense of our realities and determine how much we are able or willing to sacrifice to achieve a desired end.

The absence of timelines as the country continues in its fight against COVID-19, however, is precisely what makes the battle all the more daunting for those whose life or business has been thrust into a vacuum of irresolution by the pandemic’s impact.

Wearied by ongoing uncertainty, many cash-strapped and struggling Bahamians are wondering when this will all come to an end.

It has been 38 days since The Bahamas’ first confirmed COVID-19 case was announced on March 15, and 34 days since the first wave of curfews and business closures was ordered as part of the government’s emergency response.

During last week’s Ministry of Health press conference, officials presented new models which project case numbers up to May 20, but what appeared less quantifiable was when the country might begin to realize a flattening of its infection curve — a key indicator necessary to determine when emergency restrictions can be eased.

As has been repeatedly stressed by health officials, a flattening of the curve will necessarily depend on the behavior of the general public and its adherence to social distancing — particularly on New Providence where a steady increase in confirmed cases continues.

When panic borne out of the government’s alphabetized grocery shopping schedule resulted in the turnout of hundreds — many who did not adhere to social distancing — COVID-19 response consultant Dr. Merceline Dahl-Regis said officials might have to wait another 14 days to see whether the crowds would result in a spike in cases.

Sixteen days have passed since the implementation of the now abandoned schedule, and its crowds were frustratingly followed up this week by hundreds of Bahamas Hotel Catering and Allied Workers Union members who in risky proximity to one another, stood in line for food store vouchers.

The Bahamas closed its borders to passenger travel 22 days ago, and restricted inter-island passenger travel at that time.

As new models are formulated and results of increased testing emerge, it is hoped that the country can be given an indication of how much longer some restrictions might be necessary considering that no new cases are (presumably) being imported into the country.

The potency of risk in our pandemic response cannot be overstated.

For the economy, elevated risk is an obstacle to growth and business, and with no timelines for the reopening of commerce, drastic revenue losses and no clear path to understanding all a “new normal” is to entail for workers in the midst of a pandemic, the stakes could not be higher.

For health care workers, staffing shortages as a result of exposure to COVID-19 have increased the element of risk as government is faced with deciding when and how to reopen the economy.

The Consultant Physicians Staff Association (CPSA) in a statement Monday, urged government to carefully approach the lifting of the nationwide curfew.

It stressed, “If we reopen places too quickly and crowds of people gather, as circulated on social media, we risk many, many more persons being exposed to COVID-19.

“When patients suffer our health care system suffers, and if our health care system suffers, even more patients will suffer greatly.”

Where stories of suffering are beginning to multiply meantime, is in our communities as newly unemployed persons are left with little to nothing with which to make ends meet.

Thousands of jobless applicants have inundated the National Insurance Board (NIB), with a growing number complaining that disbursements are not coming as quickly as they need them to be.

When breadwinners and their children, the elderly, disabled and infirmed are suddenly and indefinitely jolted into dire financial straits, their personal health and safety are almost instantly shifted into a state of vulnerability that many are not well suited to stand guard against.

The risk is most pronounced for children because their voice is not heard on public platforms, and substandard parenting leaves many children helpless to protect themselves against the teeming risk of desperation and adults who would seek to exploit it.

Uncertainty and risk is everyone’s load in the COVID-19 fight.

We must all do our part so that we, through our action or inaction, do not cause another person’s load to become too heavy to bear.

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source https://thenassauguardian.com/2020/04/22/uncertainty-and-risk/