Forbes says it will be difficult for country to keep new variant out

With the omicron variant raising concern across the globe, Dr. Nikkiah Forbes, director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Diseases Programme, said yesterday that preparation is vital.

Forbes described the variant, which has more mutations than any other COVID variant detected to date, as “very alarming”. However, she noted that it is still unclear what impact those mutations have on the transmissibility and severity of the virus, as well as its ability to evade immunity.

“There is a concern that with these mutations we don’t know what that’s going to mean for the behavior of this variant virus,” she said.

“Is it going to be more infectious? Is it going to cause people to be sicker? Is it going to evade vaccines and therapies? So, that is what is being studied and that information is not known yet. So, that is what the concern is.”

The variant, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has labeled a “variant of concern”,  was first detected last week in South Africa. However, it has since been confirmed in a number of countries, including the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and several European countries. 

On Sunday, The Bahamas implemented new travel restrictions for people who have been in several southern African nations.

However, Forbes said that given the variant is already so widespread, it will be difficult to keep it out of The Bahamas.

“As of today, you see there are several European countries that are saying that they had cases even before South Africa sent out that test,” she said.

“… And so, it really does get to be challenging when you hear about variant strains of COVID-19, especially when there is a concern that it could be harder to treat or more infectious.

“Countries often do try to get ahead of it to buy themselves time for preparation, but the reality of the situation is usually by the time these variants are detected, it is quite likely and the potential is there that they have already been introduced to many places by travel.

“So, we will have to watch it closely. And what’s prudent for us to do now is prepare.”

Forbes said there needs to be expanded access to COVID testing, increased management capacity, strict quarantine measures for exposed individuals, and efficient contact tracing. 

She also noted that The Bahamas’ low vaccination coverage makes the country particularly vulnerable to another surge. 

“What’s important to know is that with suboptimal vaccine coverage … hovering around 40 percent, that’s not enough to make a significant difference as it relates to, should there be a surge or an increase in COVID, keep people out of the hospital and dying,” Forbes said.

“It just isn’t.

“With higher vaccine coverage, it can pan out that even if you have cases circulating, the pressure on the healthcare system, in terms of who is hospitalized and loss of life, is minimized.

“That’s very, very important. And so, we have to be careful. And we have to use the data and scientific experience to guide us and our behavior because what we do is very impactful.”

Forbes said it is also important for people to continue behaving responsibly by wearing their masks properly, hand washing and sanitizing, social distancing, and staying home and getting tested when they feel sick. 

“So, when you see there are countries that have reported that they have upticks of cases despite vaccination coverage that was hovering around 60 percent or even higher, with business as usual and all of the precautions back to pre-COVID life, that is a huge red flag for setting yourself up for a surge,” she said.

“And we have to be cognizant that when you look around, there are places that are having surges.

“… And so, we have to be mindful that COVID is not over.

“We are not safe just because cases are at a manageable number now. That can change reasonably quickly.

“… And a lot of that is based upon the things that we are doing and vaccination coverage.”

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