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Wednesday, December 02, 2020

Is a Cabinet reshuffle in the cards?

The resignation of K. Peter Turnquest as minister of finance has left a vacuum in the Minnis Cabinet with many now watching to see what decision the prime minister will make on a replacement.

Turnquest resigned last Wednesday as minister of finance and deputy prime minister just over a week after two companies he was previously affiliated with filed a writ in the Supreme Court accusing him of conspiring to bilk them of around $28 million.

Dr. Hubert Minnis accepted the resignation and named himself “interim” finance minister. 

Of course, there is no such creature as an interim minister of finance in our constitution, but the obvious intent was for the prime minister to indicate that he has no intention of remaining the finance minister.

The governor general swore him in on Monday.

Upon assuming office, Minnis said he does not intend to take on any portfolio, but will be a CEO-type prime minister. 

It is a stroke of bad luck that in the midst of an unprecedented health and economic and financial crisis, we have lost both our health and finance ministers due to resignations — for different reasons, of course.

Minnis had also named himself “interim” minister of health after Dr. Duane Sands resigned from Cabinet in May. More than two months later, he named Renward Wells, one of his most loyal ministers, minister of health.

In addition to watching to see who Minnis will appoint minister of finance, many are also waiting to hear who he will make his new deputy prime minister.

Selecting Wells might be too risky as it would likely create angst within the Free National Movement (FNM). A relatively newcomer to the party, Wells is not widely seen as the individual in Cabinet who should receive such an elevation. Party politics in some respects is more vicious than national politics.

While there certainly is an expectation that he will name a new DPM, the prime minister is not mandated to do so.

The deputy prime minister is not a constitutional position, and that person does not automatically become acting prime minister in the event the prime minister has to leave town or becomes incapacitated. The prime minister is not wedded to any deputy to fill in for him.

The deputy prime minister, as the most senior person in Cabinet after the prime minister, is the individual the prime minister is expected to confide in and seek advice from on various matters. Frank Watson as deputy prime minister was widely viewed as a confidante of Hubert Ingraham.

Turnquest was not viewed that way, however. We understand there were some instances he learned of important announcements after they were made.

The deputy prime minister is often the Cabinet’s liaison with the business community, as Brent Symonette was in the last Ingraham administration.

The assumption is that the deputy leader of the party will become deputy prime minister, but that is not an obligation of the prime minister.

Upon coming to office in 1992, Ingraham did not initially appoint Orville Turnquest, then deputy leader of the FNM, as deputy prime minister. 

In one of his first acts as prime minister, Ingraham advised the governor general to appoint Turnquest a queen’s counsel. He then named him attorney general, but not as deputy prime minister as he had viewed potential conflicts in those roles.

Janet Bostwick was eventually named attorney general and minister of foreign affairs after Sir Orville became governor general. Watson became deputy prime minister.

For Minnis, the most immediate task at hand is not to select a deputy prime minister, but a minister of finance. 

Options

The individual selected must have a sound grasp of fiscal and economic affairs, must be a meticulous and hard worker and ready to hit the ground running.

That individual should also be highly regarded by the business community and our wider economic partners.

In a normal year, if the prime minister is reshuffling his Cabinet or having to appoint a finance minister for any reason, that selection would be an important one to make.

In a year like 2020 when we are in a dire fiscal and economic position, and when the government is nearing the end of its term, the choice is even more critical.

The Ministry of Finance reported in late October that total revenue in the first quarter of the 2020/2021 fiscal year contracted by $251.4 million (45.5 percent) compared to the same period in the previous year. 

Higher than expected contraction in revenues and increased COVID-19 spending drove the deficit to $336.3 million from $48.8 million.

At the end of September, government debt was projected at $8.8 billion. Government borrowing in the first quarter alone neared $1 billion.

Last month, credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgraded The Bahamas’ sovereign credit rating further into junk territory citing deeper-than-expected financial shocks to tourism and the government’s balance sheet due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, along with the diminishing prospect of getting back on track with fiscal targets before the next general election.

These are all matters the finance minister has to manage. 

We were of course aware of these challenges when we made the case for Turnquest’s resignation as minister of finance last week.

It is precisely because we need someone shepherding us through this crisis who is not stained by scandal and controversy that his resignation became necessary.

Now that he has resigned, we move on to the next chapter — who to fill the Cabinet seat left vacant.

Last week, as rumors swirled about Turnquest’s resignation, a social media post claiming that former Central Bank Governor Wendy Craigg was set to become minister of finance was widely shared — and believed.

Sir Franklyn Wilson, a prominent businessman who has his eyes on these matters, observed that if the Craigg rumor proves true, “it would be a home run in terms of credibility and standing. She would give the country a shot in the arm”.

Under our constitution, the minister of finance must sit in the House of Assembly.

Article 77 states: “The governor general, acting in accordance with the advice of the prime minister, may, by directions in writing, charge the prime minister or any other minister with responsibility for any business of the Government of The Bahamas, including the administration of any department of government provided that a minister appointed from among members of the House of Assembly shall be charged with responsibility for finance.”

The constitution also stipulates at Article 129(1) that the minister of finance shall, before the end of each financial year, cause to be prepared annual estimates of revenue and expenditure for public services during the succeeding financial year, which shall be laid before the House of Assembly.

That article of the constitution goes on to outline other obligations the minister of finance must meet in the House of Assembly.

Minnis could, of course, decide to remain minister of finance and appoint a minister of state for finance to do the heavy lifting on fiscal matters.

But if he is selecting someone not currently in the House of Assembly, that would mean one of the three ministers in the Senate would have to resign. 

Article 73(3) of the constitution stipulates: “If the attorney general is appointed from among the members of the House of Assembly, not more than three ministers shall be appointed from among the senators, and if the attorney general is appointed from among the senators, not more than two other ministers shall be appointed from among the senators.”

If the prime minister takes this route, who among the three would he remove from the Senate? Attorney General Carl Bethel? Labour Minister Dion Foulkes or Minister of State for Grand Bahama Kwasi Thompson?

Several weeks ago, Thompson resigned from Cabinet temporarily and Dwight Sawyer, another FNM senator, was appointed a minister.

This allowed the government to adhere to a Senate rule that requires a minister to move a motion for adjournment of a sitting.

Cabinet ministers were in quarantine after Desmond Bannister, the works minister, tested positive for COVID-19, so there would not have been any minister in the Senate for it to meet in accordance with the rules. It needed to meet to pass an extension to the state of emergency.

If Minnis wants to put a minister of state for finance in the Senate, it would on the face of it seem logical for him to remove Thompson, the most junior of the Cabinet ministers in the Senate.

But this would send a very bad signal to Grand Bahama, an island with five seats and one that remains in the economic doldrums. It would be a nail in the FNM’s political coffin in Grand Bahama.

Minnis could reshuffle his Cabinet and appoint another minister — say Michael Pintard — as minister for Grand Bahama. Pintard, the Marco City MP, is currently the fisheries minister.

Minnis could also add the Grand Bahama portfolio to the portfolio currently held by Iram Lewis, a Grand Bahama MP, who is minister of state for disaster preparedness, management and reconstruction.

It would be imprudent to remove Bethel from Cabinet. His experience is needed, as is that of Foulkes. One of the challenges that has plagued the Minnis Cabinet is a high level of inexperience in public life.

While someone might need to take one for the team, Minnis would need to be certain he does not cut off his nose to spite his face. 

In any event, we would be surprised if an outsider decides to come into the Cabinet at this juncture as minister of state for finance. Again, the country is in crisis without any immediate signs of real hope, and we are nearing the end of the term.

It would take an incredibly serious commitment to national service for anyone not currently in public life to assume that role at this time — unless the person chosen is simply a glutton for punishment or looking to cut deals.

 Who else?

Upon coming to office in 1992, Ingraham selected William Allen, the former Central Bank governor, as a senator and made him minister of state for finance.

Allen went on to win the Montagu seat and became a substantive minister of finance, leading us through the dark days of the country’s blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Ingraham in his last term was minister of finance with Zhivargo Laing, an elected member, as his minister of state.

Perry Christie gave former Central Bank Governor James Smith a Senate appointment and made him minister of state for finance in his first term. Christie was the substantive minister of finance, delivering the budget communications in the House of Assembly.

In Christie’s most recent term, Michael Halkitis, an elected member, was his minister of state.

“The truth is, neither [Laing] nor Halkitis had the stature at that time of Allen or a Smith, so the financial community did not necessarily see value added, even though they could have very well added value internally, administratively,” Sir Franklyn opined.

“…If Minnis is going to this route of a minister of state (by selecting a senator), it has to be someone who the financial community reacts [to positively] immediately.

It has to be of the ilk of James Smith or Bill Allen and the country doesn’t have a lot of them.”

If Minnis does not touch the Senate, he would likely look among his current group of ministers to select a minister of finance.

The name that keeps coming up is the current tourism minister, Dionisio D’Aguilar.

D’Aguilar is a certified public accountant, he has solid business experience and a reputation of integrity and credibility. While we would not be surprised if he is Minnis’ ultimate pick, we do not believe D’Aguilar would want the headache that would come with the job. 

Independently wealthy, he and his family likely miss the freedom he once enjoyed. In this COVID era, tourism has proven a task much greater than he had bargained for.

Finance would be an even greater challenge. But perhaps he could be convinced.

This would mean someone has to be shifted to tourism, which also needs dedicated focus and attention right now as tourism remains our primary income generator. 

On the surface, Brent Symonette, the St. Anne’s MP who resigned from the Cabinet last year, would be a good choice for finance minister.

Sir Franklyn agrees.

“In the Parliament, Brent Symonette may be his best bet,” he said without prompting.

“If you just look at it in terms of who could fit that bill, who could do things that Paul Adderley (a finance minister under Sir Lynden Pindling) could do, where people can say, ‘man, he can always tell the prime minister shove it’, Brent would fit that bill.”

Symonette, who turns 66 today, told a Nassau Guardian reporter yesterday that while the job is not one he is pursuing as he believes younger people should be given a chance in politics, if asked by the prime minister he would consider becoming finance minister.

But even if Symonette agreed to it, that would not be a good move politically for Minnis.  

The optics would damage Minnis and the FNM.

The opposition would have a field day with the conflicts that plagued Symonette and might get a lot of political mileage in an election year, resurrecting the United Bahamian Party (UPB) bogeyman and heightening fears of special interests.

We don’t see Minnis going there, much too risky for him politically.

Sir Franklyn pointed out that D’Aguilar is a good possibility, given that he is regarded as a successful businessman in the community.         There just won’t be any time for anyone coming from the outside to achieve anything meaningful, he noted.

“If you really are a serious professional, a Wendy Craigg, you can go there and say ‘I got a five-year run to really clean up and turn the corner’ whatever the case is. You can see yourself doing something, but the truth is the minister of finance now has little time to really take much in the way of corrective action,” Sir Franklyn opined.

“You got to assume it’s going to take the minister some time to really learn the ropes and the protocol and the people and all that stuff, so good people may very well say ‘whereas at another time I may have done it, but at this particular time and in these circumstances, I just can’t.”

The post Is a Cabinet reshuffle in the cards? appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.



source https://thenassauguardian.com/is-a-cabinet-reshuffle-in-the-cards/

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