Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis’ declaration on Friday that he is “totally against” drilling for oil in Bahamian waters is decidedly stronger in tone than his previously stated position on the matter when he was in opposition.
“I am totally against drilling for oil in our waters, totally,” Minnis said. “I have said that before; that has not changed.”
Though we have no record of Minnis ever expressing enthusiastic support for Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) planned exercise, the Free National Movement leader had said in opposition, “In embarking on oil drilling, the only thing I ask is that proper regulations be in place.”
His concerns at the time were understandable — safeguarding the environment and ensuring that the Bahamian people benefit fairly from the new industry if such were to be developed.
Speaking in September 2012, Minnis said, “We have serious concerns about the environment and where are the regulations that would protect us if an accident were to occur.
“Where are the regulations with respect to how any proceeds from this venture would be handled? And what are we going to do with the money? That money, and that oil belongs to the people. It should be protected for future generations. And the people should have a say in what is done with it.”
Minnis, the opposition leader, left the door open for support of oil drilling with certain caveats.
Minnis, the prime minister, says he is totally opposed to drilling, but his administration is unfortunately “saddled with an agreement that we met there”.
“When we discussed it with the legal department we were advised that the commitment and everything was signed and basically we could not get out of it,” he said.
“But if we could’ve gotten out of it, believe me, I am totally against drilling for oil in our waters.”
His comments came as BPC’s drillship neared The Bahamas. The Stena IceMAX is now here and BPC’s CEO Simon Potter said in a statement on Monday that drilling of the Perseverance #1 well will “commence imminently”.
BPC also claimed that it has secured access to potentially another $20 million through a “leading” European asset manager.
While the prime minister’s statement was not an indication that the exploratory drilling will be halted, we imagine that it has created some concern for BPC — a company listed on the London Stock Exchange — and its investors.
Minnis’ statement cast a shadow over any future activity by BPC in The Bahamas and capped off a bad week for the company, whose project is now the subject of litigation filed by influential environmental groups Waterkeeper Bahamas Ltd. and Save the Bays, which are seeking a judicial review of the Minnis administration’s authorization of the exercise.
BPC’s license agreements, originally entered into by the first Christie administration, provide only for the company to explore for oil and gas resources.
As required by the licensing agreements and subsequent extensions, BPC must drill at least one exploratory well.
The full impact of the court filing on the BPC project has not yet played out.
Attorney General Carl Bethel told us on Sunday that it had initially been the view of Environment Minister Romauld Ferreira that BPC was in breach of its agreements as it had failed to drill an exploratory well in the stipulated time.
Bethel said BPC protested and so the Office of the Attorney General asked a senior consultant to examine the issue and the advice given after a review of all the documents involved was that BPC had been ordered by both the Ingraham and Christie administrations to cease and desist pending implementation of environmental regulations.
It was determined that BPC was not in breach of its agreements as its delayed drilling was through no fault of its own, the attorney general said.
Shift
The issue BPC might face in the future is the Minnis administration has provided no clear policy position on oil drilling.
We know that the prime minister says he is against it — when he previously suggested support so long as stringent environmental regulations were in place.
We know that the Minnis administration’s position is that it must allow the exploratory drilling to take place as it claims it has no lawful means of pulling out.
But what the government’s stance would be on developing a new industry if the exploratory well is successful has not been articulated.
If anything, Minnis’ latest statement seems to suggest that his administration would not be willing to go beyond allowing an exploratory well.
The thing with Minnis though, is his positions on various issues of national importance seem to be driven by populism more than conviction.
He is the king of pander and the master of flip-flop.
In opposition, he called the Spy Bill the Christie administration wanted to pass “a breach of the privacy of the public at large” and said it must not be allowed to stand. After he assumed office, the Minnis administration had similar legislation passed as a matter of priority.
In opposition, a seemingly deeply concerned Minnis called for the government to move quickly to “pop” the necks of “murderous scum bags”. He promised a referendum on capital punishment. In government, he has given the death penalty issue no attention.
In opposition, when many in the public were calling for electoral reform, Minnis made a number of pledges he promised to give early attention to. In government, they have received no legislative priority.
In opposition, Minnis railed against the “secret” Baha Mar deal and vowed to “execute a real sale” of the Cable Beach property. In government, his tone quickly shifted. He praised Baha Mar’s developers for fully opening the resort.
Now, on the BPC agreements, his attorney general tells us that the licensing agreements are “not public documents” — this, from a party that promised while in opposition to make early enactment of the Freedom of Information Act a priority and to ensure that all deals negotiated on behalf of the people of The Bahamas are made public.
No party when it assumes office does all it said it would do while in opposition. There must be room to allow governments to reorder priorities to respond to crises — and this current administration has faced two unprecedented events: Dorian and COVID-19.
Even allowing room for governments to react to crises, the prime minister’s record and his shifting statements on significant national issues — in some cases a seismic pivot — speak to a leader whose primary concern is making himself popular with the people and gaining political mileage.
Policy
There appears to be a growing mood against oil drilling in The Bahamas, although BPC Director and former Minister of State for Finance James Smith predicts that if oil is discovered, the vast majority of Bahamians would support exploitation.
We have not seen any scientific survey on the topic, but opposition to BPC’s plan has been increasing in intensity as the drilling nears. BPC believes there is a silent majority that supports its plan, however.
Minnis wants to be on the side of the popular position. That is his political modus operandi.
If the Minnis administration wants to be seen as credible and transparent on this issue, it should make public in Parliament a full reporting of the various licensing agreements and the extensions provided to BPC over the years.
Minnis should also let us know what his government policy position is on oil drilling in The Bahamas. Such weighty matters ought not be dealt with flippantly, but through thoughtful communication to the Bahamian people.
Is it that the government will allow the pursuit of this industry given that environmental regulations have been put in place, so long as it can negotiate a fair shake for the Bahamian people, or will it be a policy in line with the latest personal position expressed by the prime minister?
Minnis did say if his government could have gotten out of the agreement it would have.
The prime minister obviously has no opposition to development of an industry that refines fossil fuels. His government’s green lighting of the Oban project — an oil refinery and storage facility for East Grand Bahama in 2018 — was evidence of such.
The Minnis administration’s failure to ensure stringent and above board environmental clauses was the subject of great controversy and eventually forced the government to commit to negotiating a new agreement with that company. If Oban officials don’t know it yet, that deal is as dead as a doornail.
If BPC’s exploratory drilling determines there is a commercially viable quantity of oil in The Bahamas, would a government drowning in debt — nearly $9 billion at last reports — ignore the find or would it determine how best to allow oil exploitation?
If the exploratory drill proves successful, this issue would no doubt feature prominently in the upcoming election campaigns.
Each party would need to state clearly where it stands on the matter and whether it would allow BPC or any other company to proceed.
Minnis seems to have suggested to BPC already that when The Bahamas government is no longer legally obligated to the company, there will be no further approvals for the company — but again, Minnis’ views in many respects have changed with the wind.
While BPC has certainly come from far to this point where it actually has a drillship in our territory and is ready to go with all the requisite approvals, and while it expresses much optimism about its planned exercise, it is too soon to know whether the company’s gamble will pay off.
The prime minister’s declaration on Friday signals the gamble is even bigger than BPC might have imagined.
In a March 2013 analysis, the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper, wrote, “Any impact from the discovery of oil will fall outside our forecast period. However, we expect that the issue will remain high on the political agenda given that the drilling of one well is unlikely to prove conclusive.
“Future policy formulation on the issue will remain highly controversial and potentially damaging to the government’s popularity, and this could derail efforts to further open offshore drilling opportunities.”
BPC’s best bet could end up being funding the campaign of Philip Brave Davis and the Progressive Liberal Party and hoping a friendlier administration gets in. (Minnis never brought promised legislation to regulate campaign financing and is now noncommittal on that issue too).
BPC could also bank on the Bahamian people shifting their own tone in the event of a significant find and demanding their government exploit the natural resource.
In that event, BPC could bet that Prime Minister Minnis would likely align himself with that particular populist view.
The post Finger in the wind appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.
source https://thenassauguardian.com/finger-in-the-wind/
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