Peter Turnquest is gone from the Cabinet of Dr. Hubert Minnis, but he remains deputy leader of the Free National Movement and is obviously seeking to stay in the FNM’s good graces in his recent declaration that his party’s chance of winning the next election is good.
We cannot blame him for having a view or for expressing it so openly, but we have to wonder whether deep down in his gut he actually believes that, or whether he is seeking to secure his spot on the party’s ticket for the next big showdown at the polls.
While some senior FNMs persist in their hubris and are brimming with misplaced confidence, others quietly recognize “we in trouble”.
It is not a new occurrence for disenchantment toward an administration to grow with the ageing of a political term, but the problem the Minnis administration faces is made worse by its slow start out the gate and the rapid rate at which it depleted the resources of its goodwill bank in the months after its spectacular election win in 2017.
Just over two years into its term, it was left to deal with the monumental task of managing the aftermath of the catastrophic Hurricane Dorian, while still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, which had impacted some areas of The Bahamas on a lesser scale.
Overwhelmed by and, in some cases, seemingly shell shocked by the sheer magnitude of what had unfolded with Dorian, the government struggled to mount an organized and credible response, fumbling recovery and rebuilding initiatives and creating another disaster in its poor handling of the missing and the dead.
While still trying to figure out how best to assist survivors in restoring their lives and their communities, the government was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic, not unlike countries in the region and across the globe.
The difference was that here, our government and our people were already compounded by a crisis of proportions – many who lived through it and who continue to live through it have difficulty describing in the face of lingering horrors and incalculable loss.
It is true — as many FNMs and other Bahamians like to point out — that no other administration in modern times has confronted the kind of challenges faced by the Minnis administration.
Still, the management of the pandemic, the failure of the competent authority to be more engaging and fair in his edicts and less punitive, further eroded support, tarnished credibility and widened the trust deficit. Indeed, a crisis of confidence in our government had quickly developed and was rapidly worsening.
To be clear, Minnis and his ministers could not work miracles in the face of the economic maelstrom caused by the pandemic and its crippling blow to an already challenged healthcare system, but many – angered, stressed and disheartened by job losses, closures of their businesses and loss of their loved ones due to inadequate access to health care – took their aim at their government.
Even before these twin crises descended, the Minnis administration was already placing key pledges on the back burner, stating that it had met the cupboard bare and that it had no choice but to raise value-added tax (VAT), although in opposition it had lashed the Christie administration over its introduction in 2015 and had repeatedly called it regressive and an unimaginative approach to solving our fiscal woes.
The government of Hubert Minnis had banked on the early term introduction of the tax hike giving it enough time to eventually blunt the sharp criticisms and to somehow get back into the good graces of the electorate.
But as 2020 has turned out to be “the lost year” in our national life, the 2017-2022 term is shaping up to be the “lost term” of modern Bahamian history — a period of low achievement and weak leadership lacking in vision, creativity and the degree of competence required to move us more quickly beyond this dark and painful hour.
Slimming chances
It is the desire of Minnis — whose rise to the leadership position of the Free National Movement in 2012 felt to be a historical accident — that he becomes the first prime minister since Hubert Ingraham in 1997 to pull off a consecutive election win.
The electorate will, of course, ultimately decide whether to make this happen, but the climb might prove insurmountable for an administration that has thus far recorded few noteworthy accomplishments, that has failed to remain humble, and will likely spend the next year trying to stabilize an economy still on life support and shore up government finances currently in a critical state.
A government out of money can only do so much, but will the people understand and give them another shot?
Such a prospect certainly seems to be a long shot at this stage.
In order to sustain its social programs, pay civil servants, and meet other commitments, the government is borrowing at an alarming rate. In the first quarter of 2020/2021 alone, it borrowed just under $1 billion. At the end of September, government debt was projected at $8.8 billion.
The recent opening of Atlantis, though not the full resort, and the planned opening tomorrow of Baha Mar’s Grand Hyatt and its casino, provide some hope that we might be creeping toward some level of economic stability, even if that stability is still a ways off.
The ground remains shaky, nerves are frayed, pockets and personal cupboards are empty, bread lines are long, mortgages and rents are unpaid, and many will not have the merry Christmas they are used to having, and will likely not have the prosperous new year they always hope for.
All this as we are headed toward an election year.
There’s not much the Minnis administration will likely be able to do in the way of any feel-good measures in the next budget.
This is made worse by the failure of the prime minister to inspire any confidence by appointing himself minister of finance and Senator Kwasi Thompson minister of state for finance.
Many fear, as do we admittedly, that we are seeing a situation of the blind leading the blind in the handling of our fiscal affairs.
In a term where the usual challenges of balancing fiscal priorities and driving economic growth exist, administrations have been wiped out by voters.
In a term that has had the added challenges of a Category 5 hurricane followed by a global pandemic crippling tourism and bringing the economy to a near halt, the chances become even more slim.
The Minnis administration, whose big ticket pledge in 2017 was to overhaul the anti-corruption regime in the country, has failed to give priority to promised legislation intended to achieve this, and has failed so far in any prosecutions of former parliamentarians brought by the attorney general’s office.
It has also neglected to effect electoral reform. How many times did we hear Minnis in opposition promise term limits for prime minister, a recall system for members of Parliament, a set election date so no one man has the say on when we vote, campaign finance legislation and so on?
It all sounded so appealing.
Asked on Friday about this long-promised campaign finance bill, the prime minister was noncommittal, saying, “I think it’s needed and at some point in time, I hope to see it come to fruition.”
Without a doubt, it is the state of the economy that is most critical at this time and its expected anemic performance in 2021 will likely lead to even wider disaffection toward the current administration.
Making ready
Over the last several weeks, the prime minister has been hopscotching across the country: he toured a Bahamas Striping asphalt plant at Georgetown, Exuma; opened a small dock at Barraterre; he held a ceremony to present 24 Crown Land grants to residents of Crossing Rocks, Abaco; he toured a new bridge at Spanish Wells, visited San Salvador, Cat Island and other islands.
Minnis would say that he is merely doing his job as prime minister, a prime minister who represents all Bahamians, not just those on New Providence. But make no mistake about it, his campaign is moving into gear.
The government is establishing a permanent voters register and Minnis has already made the unconstitutional declaration that boundaries will not change.
He is making ready.
The decision Bahamian voters will be called upon to make is whether they want to break the streak of changing parties every five years to govern their affairs and give Minnis and the FNM a chance to govern for another lap.
The government of the day will blame its failures and shortcomings on Dorian and COVID.
Electors will need to decide whether they accept that were it not for these unprecedented events, the Minnis administration would have been much further along in its stated agenda.
Are enough Bahamian voters in enough constituencies willing to give the FNM a pass or will they do what so many voters have done over multiple election cycles — punish the administration that failed to deliver for them, or that messed up royally on some very important issues, or that became scandal-ridden and out of touch with the people?
If enough of them in enough constituencies decide to hold their noses and vote for the other team or go to the polls gleefully in hopes that the “new” PLP would deliver for them, then Minnis and the FNM would be outside looking in.
Turnquest, the now former deputy prime minister, might genuinely believe that his party’s chance at another victory is good, but we believe that statement could only be made by someone who is tremendously out of touch, or singing for his super in his personal bid to redeem himself in the political sphere.
The post A misread of the tea leaves? appeared first on The Nassau Guardian.
source https://thenassauguardian.com/a-misread-of-the-tea-leaves/
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