Bahamas faces huge climate change bills, according to World Bank report

Between 2020 and 2050 The Bahamas faces $6.5 billion worth of coastal protection and investment costs and maintenance costs at the high end, as climate change threatens this country’s land area, according to research released by the World Bank that is designed to be a “guide to prepare the Caribbean for a new generation of shocks”.

Early into the document the authors contend that Caribbean countries are not prepared for the “new challenges” that will come along with climate change. The document reveals the enormous costs that will be associated with guarding against the effects of climate change and the subsequent costs of maintaining those guards.

It also reminds readers that countries in the Caribbean region, including The Bahamas, are now faced with depleted fiscal resources to deal with these effects, because so much financial resources were and continue to be utilized to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The strategies that have worked in the past will not be enough in the future,” the document states. “Climate change threatens to intensify natural hazards and brings new sources of volatility though impacts on health, agriculture yields and coastal landscapes.

“The post-COVID-19 world brings more uncertainty on prospects for tourism. Many countries have also depleted their fiscal space and coping capacity while dealing with past crises.”

The researchers have concluded that The Bahamas could spend as much as $1.7 billion between 2020 and 2050 erecting coastal protection infrastructure, while spend $4.8 billion on maintenance costs. According to the document, those costs could represent as much as 1.6 percent of the country’s gross domestic product per year.

The report also suggests The Bahamas could spend as much as $20 billion on the high end on beach nourishment, “assuming linear erosion between 2020 and 2050 and using current beach nourishment costs”.

“These estimates show that beach nourishment can be an affordable solution to erosion in many countries,” the report states.

“But in The Bahamas, Belize, Dominica and Turks and Caicos, the cost is high and countries will need a strategy to either select the beaches they want to protect, or complement sand nourishment with other measures that reduce erosion, such as submerged breakwaters or vegetation on the beach, assuming there is no infrastructure.

“Where sand nourishment is too expensive, countries might need to organize a managed retreat away from the coast to allow vegetation to protect the dunes and the beach.”

The document explains that The Bahamas is the country expected to have the highest sandy beach loss in the region by 2050, with an expected loss of 133 square kilometers “under a high sea level rise scenario and no adaptation”.

The report explains that all countries should build resilient infrastructure and have in place a master plan of resilience objectives standards and regulations.

According to the document’s authors, all countries studied for the report either have a master plan in place or are developing one, except The Bahamas and Suriname.

The report adds that The Bahamas also does not have a national adaptation plan to “integrate climate change adaptation into national decision making and infrastructure planning”.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre was cited in the World Bank report and revealed that 5.9 percent of The Bahamas’ population could be displaced by hurricanes annually.

The report notes that The Bahamas is one of the countries in the region most affected by disasters in the past two decades, further explaining that while the country has little fiscal headspace for more natural disasters, its banking system tests well for stress from shocks.

The report also laments that the country’s water supply is under threat, with New Providence’s water resources stretched thin.

“The Bahamas’ water sources are overstressed and New Providence is one of the most overstressed cities in the Caribbean,” the report explains.

“Deficient service has made the government reluctant to authorize tariff increases, exacerbating the company’s (Water and Sewerage Corporation) financial problems.

“Since the 1990s, this vicious cycle has led to large government subsidies.”

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